An international panel of medical experts have thrust Lucy Letby back into the spotlight. At a press conference convened by ...

The failure to understand independence lies at the heart of two famous phenomena: the gambler’s fallacy and the “hot hand” in sports. When we do understand independence, we can make better decisions ...

Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. Bryce Hoffman writes about leadership, strategy, and decision making. The base rate fallacy is a cognitive bias that causes us to ignore or ...

The first of these is what I would call the Statistical Fallacy, and it occurs when we forget that tennis is first and foremost a game of specific match-ups, and therefore each match comes with an ...

The short answer: it’s complicated. Unlike the gambler’s fallacy, which can be ruled out by clear statistical principles, the hot hand phenomenon resists definitive dismissal. There’s no way ...