This IPCC guidance note discusses how to use confidence levels to describe the quality of evidence and scientific agreement, as well likelihood terms to describe the probability intervals …

10)Likelihood, as defined in Table 1, provides calibrated language for describing quantified uncertainty. It can be used to express a probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of a single …

Because the IPCC guidance note (Mastrandrea et al. 2010) aims to help experts to write IPCC reports, it is important to understand how they assign condence levels and like-lihood terms. …

Likelihood, as defined in Table 4, refers to a probabilistic assessment of some well defined outcome having occurred or occurring in the future. The categories defined in this table should …

Working Group I (WGI) assesses the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change, while Working Groups II (WGII) and III (WGIII) assess the vulnerability and adaptation of …

Identify key findings as they emerge and give attention to evaluating confidence and quantifying uncertainties in them. Determine the areas in your chapter where a range of views may need …

By using the Likelihood Scale, the IPCC can effectively communicate what we know and what we don't know about global climate change. Below is an example of how the IPCC uses the …

2011年8月13日 · The Guidance Notes listed seven terms in the likelihood scale, ranging from exceptionally unlikely (<1% probability of occurrence) to virtually certain (>99% probability of …

2014年4月20日 · Now a multinational study, across 17 languages, shows that people interpret IPCC statements as implying probabilities closer to 50% than intended by the IPCC authors.

2007年9月6日 · The first IPCC assessments provided uncertainty information in largely subjective form via linguistic categorizations depicting different levels of confidence. Recent assessments …