2020年11月9日 · 538 did an article about the urban-rural divide. It said that in 2016, the correlation between urbanization and Dem voting was 0.69 in 2016 and 0.55 in 2012. (There was one big exception: Vermont.) What was the correlation between the preliminary results and the urbanization index in the 2020 presidential election?

2021年7月19日 · Campaign stops, and advertisements in local markets use limited resources. In 2020, Ohio is currently polling at 50-49, Trump, so it's close. But Biden probably should not invest too much time / money in Ohio, as he can comfortably win with states that are to it's left. 538 currently lists Ohio as the tipping point in 2.8% of simulations. But ...

538 pays a lot of attention to the quality, decay, and noise from polling data. Silver uses Pollster rankings, trend line adjustments, and poll sample adjustments to enhance the performance of a run-of-the-mill polling average.

2025年2月16日 · In 'Dems can take the House back in 60 days' a YouTube podcaster argues that via the three upcoming special elections (1 in New York and 2 in Florida) Democrats could take the House back by winning...

2024年7月31日 · 538 is a shadow of its former self. There's no real lead, nobody to make a decision on how to handle the change of nominee. Perhaps it also would require someone to change some of the software. 538 was essentially de-funded by ABC and exists only in name, The 538 from 2008-2020 is gone.

2020年11月26日 · I just read this Wikipedia article. It says Trump won with a 304 to 227 for electoral votes. That's 304 + 227 = 531 votes. But the total number should be 538. Where did the 7 votes go?

2024年10月24日 · OK, but you have systems like The Economist and 538 that have 53% Trump/47% Harris odds as of last week. Those are not polls, they are statistical analyses built on top of polls. The Electoral College is a known mechanism to them, so is the extra margin needed for the Dems to win.

2020年10月26日 · 538 uses a t-distribution to account for "black swan" events: things that, although they are unlikely, would have a big impact on the polls. This means that 538 assigns a small probability to some very unlikely outcomes (Trump wins California, or Biden wins Utah) The Economist model doesn't.

2024年8月28日 · This was actually one of the reasons that 538 originally started combining multiple polls into weighted aggregates: to increase the overall reliability. The fact that even 538 seems to no longer be doing their aggregates for Senate races, and is now even burying the margin of error/quality information 3 to 5 clicks deep is sad indeed.

2020年11月6日 · 435 Representatives + 100 Senators + 3 DC Electors = 538 Electoral Votes Though this is slightly outside the scope of your question, this is part of the reason the census has recently been politicized : an undercount in (often specific) urban areas would lead to lesser representation in traditionally blue areas, giving Republicans greater ...