The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that, if an event (whose occurrences are independent and identically distributed) has occurred less frequently than expected, it is more likely to happen again in the future (or vice versa).

In statistics, gambler's ruin is the fact that a gambler playing a game with negative expected value will eventually go bankrupt, regardless of their betting system.

The gambler’s fallacy is the mistaken belief that if an event occurred more frequently than expected in the past then it’s less likely to occur in the future (and vice versa), in a situation where these occurrences are independent of one another.

The gambler’s fallacy describes our belief that the probability of a random event occurring in the future is influenced by previous instances of that type of event.

2024年8月27日 · Also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, the gambler’s fallacy is based on the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less...

2023年9月21日 · What Is the Gambler's Fallacy? The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, occurs when an individual erroneously believes that a certain random event is less likely or more...

2024年6月14日 · The gambler’s fallacy revolves around the misconception that past outcomes influence future probabilities, even if events are independent. The fallacy suggest that if a particular event has occurred repeatedly in the past, it is less likely to occur in the future.

Grasping the Gambler’s Fallacy can shield us from making poor decisions based on incorrect assumptions about how randomness works. It’s relevant to anyone making choices under uncertainty – from gaming to financial planning, and even …

In the following article, you will learn more about the gambler’s fallacy, understand the psychology behind it, and see what you can do to minimize its influence, in order to help you make more optimal decisions.

2011年11月29日 · In other words, the Gambler’s Fallacy is the belief that a “run” or “streak” of a given outcome lowers the probability of observing that outcome on the next trial. The Gambler’s Fallacy is one of several biases or errors found in people’s perceptions of randomness.