Expert Judgment (EJ) denotes a wide variety of techniques ranging from a single undocumented opinion, through preference surveys, to formal elicitation with external validation of expert probability assessments.

2021年11月22日 · Expert judgment can range from asking an individual expert for their best guess, to following a formal, structured approach to systematically obtain and combine probabilistic judgments. This synthesis of opinions is called expert elicitation.

2021年2月20日 · Rather our concern is with the use of expert judgement to provide quantitative probabilistic assessments of key uncertainties in an analysis when empirical data are unavailable, incomplete, uninformative or conflicting.

2020年10月28日 · Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) is a technique that enables you to appropriately account for uncertainty when there is no data or no appropriate data available. In these courses you will be introduced and will apply the Classical Model (CM) or Cooke’s method, which is arguably the most rigorous method for performing Structured Expert Judgment.

2021年2月20日 · Here, we provide a process framework for the identification, development, and integration of SR functions into CE models, and highlight their consequential properties, behaviour, criteria for...

Expert elicitation and structured judgment methods are essential tools used in various fields to gather insights and make informed decisions based on expert knowledge....

2000年1月1日 · To evaluate their probabilistic performance, we employ the classical model (CM), an established method typically used to validate expert opinion. In this analysis, we assess both the predictive...

2017年7月30日 · Expert judgement informs a variety of important applications in conservation and natural resource management, including threatened species management, environmental impact assessment and structured decision-making. However, expert judgements can be prone to contextual biases.

This paper describes the use of structured expert judgement in a formal manner, in particular addressing the issues of calibrating experts and optimising the combined assessments of a panel of experts. The paper refers to the Procedures Guide of Structured Expert Judgement (Cooke and Goossens 2000) published by the European Union as EUR 18820.

Expert elicitation refers to formal procedures for obtaining and combining expert judgments. Expert elicitation is required when existing data and models cannot provide needed information. This makes validating expert judgments a challenge because they are used when other data do not exist and thus measuring their accuracy is difficult.