2025年3月2日 · IHME researchers forecasted population from 2018 to 2100 for 195 countries and territories. They produced these using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 and and forecasts for fertility, migration, and mortality rates.

The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study provides a comprehensive picture of mortality and disability across countries, time, age, and sex. It quantifies health loss from hundreds of diseases, injuries, and risk factors, so that health systems can be improved and disparities eliminated.

Use these visualizations to interact with the latest GBD estimates, comparing causes, injuries, and risks across time, age, and place. Search and download GBD 2021 estimates with the GBD Results tool. Explore GBD 2021 input data sources and retrieve relevant metadata about them with the GBD Sources Tool.

2025年2月21日 · The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), estimated the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations.

2024年3月24日 · Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario.

2024年6月13日 · 今天，中国学者用GBD2019数据发表了医学顶刊 《BMJ》，题为：“ Global burden of type 1 diabetes in adults aged 65 years and older, 1990-2019: population based study”，研究者基于GBD数据库，根据社会发展水平和老年人口的年龄和性别，调查了 1990-2019年全球、区域和国家水平≥65岁成年人的1型糖尿病患者（T1DM）相关患病率、死亡率和残疾调整生命年 (DALYs)，还评估了可能影响老年T1DM患者DALYs的因素。 不过现在的文章都是 …

2020年7月14日 · Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

2024年3月25日 · 据柳叶刀TheLancet官方账号介绍，2021全球疾病负担、伤害和风险因素研究（GBD）是一项由华盛顿大学医学院健康指标与评估研究所（IHME）所领导的全球性研究工作，这项研究介绍了过去、现在和未来的世界、地区以及国家层面的生育率及活产分布趋势的估计预 …

2024年11月12日 · 该数据集提供了 1950 年至 2100 年间的年龄别生育率（ASFR）、总生育率（TFR）和活产数的年度估计。 估计值基于来自 8709 个国家年度数据（包括重要统计和样本注册）、1455 次调查与普查，以及 150 个其他来源的数据。 全球疾病负担研究（Global Burden of Disease, GBD） 人口增长趋势分析：探索历史与未来的生育率变化及其对人口结构的影响。 公共卫生政策制定：评估生育率与健康服务需求之间的关联。 全球与区域比较研究：分析不同地 …

We forecasted population from 2018 to 2100 for 195 countries and territories with the standard cohort-component method of projection, using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. 14 This approach uses inputs of population by age and sex in 2017, sex ratios at birth in 2017 (kept constant ...