2024年6月20日 · These models are designed to estimate the risk of spillover of endemic AIVs, generally of low-pathogenicity, from wild birds into domestic poultry operations, based on the spatio-temporal AIV ...

2013年6月13日 · We used the Random Forests algorithm, an ensemble data-mining machine-learning method, to develop a global-scale predictive map of AIV, identify important predictors, and describe the environmental niche of AIV in wild bird populations. The model has an accuracy of 0.79 and identified northern areas as having the highest relative predicted risk ...

2024年12月15日 · The AIV model of Breban et al. includes wild bird migration but the focus is primarily on the environmental disease spread in the wild reservoir population through a hybrid deterministic and stochastic approach. In this paper, we choose to apply more complex models than previous studies to account for multiple species involved in the ...

2017年1月13日 · Using nucleotide sequences from the internal protein coding segments of AIV, we performed a Bayesian phylogeographic study to uncover regional routes of transmission and factors predictive of the rate of viral diffusion within China.

2022年8月18日 · In this study, we applied 6 different scenarios of habitat loss to fall migration networks of the Greater white-fronted goose in the EAAF, integrated with an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the migration of waterfowl and with a susceptible-infected-recovered model (SIR) to simulate the virus spread among habitats and the transmission in the ...

2016年5月11日 · In this study, we integrate ecosystem interactions into a phylogeographic model to assess the contribution of wild and domestic hosts to AIV distribution and persistence. Analysis of globally sampled AIV datasets shows frequent two-way transmission between wild and domestic ecosystems.

2020年11月20日 · We identify 2048 AIV-positive samples and perform next generation sequencing. AIV-positive rates (12.73%) from samples had decreased substantially since 2016, compared to that during 2014–2016...

2012年8月30日 · Design, sampling and data interpretation constitute an important challenge for wildlife surveillance of avian influenza viruses (AIV). The aim of this study was to construct a model to improve and enhance identification in both different periods and locations of avian species likely at high risk of contact with AIV in a specific wetland.

2020年10月8日 · We sampled 157 hosts and 110 low-path AIVs with 32 species as drivers. The prevalence across low-path AIV subtypes is dominated by Muscovy ducks, Mallards, Whistling Swans and gulls also...

2024年7月10日 · The model estimated the relative risk of transmission of AIVs between humans and commercial and backyard production systems by species, which has value for informing public health surveillance, as well as for improving the active risk-based surveillance system currently in place for commercial poultry.